Higher Education Scenarios


We are in a period where uncertainty is great and historical trends may shift. These are the circumstances where using scenarios is very useful. They make us think about different possible futures using short stories that are plausible. A short summary of this process was published in July 2009 by the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania as "Eyes Wide Open: Embracing Uncertainty through Scenario Planning."


Arizona Higher Education



Two Scenarios for the University of Arizona in 2025 (2009)

This study begins by listing the then-current vision statements of the Arizona Board of Regents, ASU, NAU, and UA. Titles include 1) Celebrating Tradition; and 2) Organizational Metamorphosis. (4 pages)

Six Scenarios for Arizona Universities in 2010 (2001)

Written with input from Arizona Board of Regents staff. Titles include: 1) Harvard Opens Branch Campus in Scottsdale, Arizona; 2) Fighting for Control of Arizona Higher Education; 3) Arizona Diversifies its Politics and Moves to the Center; 4) Resources Matter: Paying Attention to Mother Nature; 5) Arizona Regents University: The Integrated Virtual Approach; and 6) Universities Transformed: Can it be done? (10 pages)


U.S. Higher Education


Four Scenarios for 2025 from the University of California (2006)

Part of the study titled "UC 2025: The Power and Promise of Ten." Titles include: Beyond the Tipping Point, Virtuous Circle, UC POlytechnic, and Complementary Campuses. (1 page)

Seven Scenarios from the Higher Education Project (2004)

From a book by Frank Newman, The Future of Higher Education. Titles are: 1) Dwindling Hope: Merit Aid Widens the Gap; 2) The Rise of the Consortia; 3) New Providers Help Build a Skilled Workforce; 4) Raising the Bar: AP-16 System Aligns Standards; 5) The US-Mexico Case; 6) Contracting for Accountability; and 7) In Search of the New Economy: Encouraging Private Competitors to Fill the Demand for Skills. (2 pages)

Eight Scenarios for the University of Michigan (2000)

From the report by James Duderstadt, "A Choice of Transformations for the 21st-Century University." Titles include: World University, Diverse University, Creative University, Divisionless University, Cyberspace University, Adult University, Ubiquitous University, Lifelong University, and Laboratory University. Part of a book titled, A University for the 21st Century. (3 pages)

Map of Future Forces Affecting Education

Forces on 2020 and, while it began in 2006, it continues with interactive development. Jointly developed by the Knowledgeworks Foundation and the Institute of the Future (uses the IFTF Map of the Decade for Education). Focused on K-12 but applicable to higher education. Formal scenarios are not developed, but the "map" provides issues and rationale so you can essentially make your own map that emphasizes the areas you want to emphasize - then do it again with different assumptions and soon you have scenarios.

European Higher Education


The Future of the Tertiary Education Sector (2003)

Six OECD Scenarios for a "learning society." The titles are: 1) Tradition; 2) Entrepreneurial Universities; 3) Free Market; 4) Lifelong Learning and Open Education; 5) Global Network of Institutions; and 6) Diversity of Recognized Learning. (Note: The U.S. is one of the 30 member-countries of the OECD). (2 pages)

Four Scenarios for 2030 from OECD (2006)

Extensive analysis for each, including key drivers, related developments, and questions. Titles are 1) Open Networking; 2) Serving Local Communities; 3) New Public Responsibility; and 4) Higher Education, Inc. (7 pages)

Six Scenarios for 2025 from FutureLab (United Kingdom, 2009)

Divided into three "worlds" with two scenarios each. Focused on K-12, but well done and referenced; many of the observations are applicable to higher education. World 1: Trust Yourself (Informed Choice, Independent Consumers); World 2: Loyalty Points (Discovery, Diagnosis); World 3: Only Connect (Integrated Experience, Service and Citizenship)