CALS Environmental Scan Results


An "environmental scan" is a process and a report that summarizes the changes taking place in the external environment. They can focus on a single subject, like higher education, but normally they cover a wide range of subjects. Another common practice is to group them in a half-dozen or so general categories where each category has a series of trends or issues that relate to that category. Sometimes these categories are called driving forces of change, and sometimes they are acronyms such as STEEP (social, technical, economic, environmental, and political). Some are short views of the future, a couple of years, but most are at least three to five years, and some are 10 or more years. Some look at underlying fundamental shifts that will make change in predictable or unpredictable ways and some simply look at near-term trends and extrapolate then into the future.

The links and summaries below cover some environmental scans for Arizona higher education and some broader topics. It is good to read several scans as each is done differently and seeing the differences is educational in itself.


Arizona Higher Education



CALS Environmental Scan (2009)

Lists five key driving forces of change with short descriptions. Topics are: Science and Technology, Population and Demographics, Economic and Financial, Resources and Environment, and Physical and Social Infrastructure (and a "bottom line statement"). (1 page)

CALS Environmental Scan (2004)

Lists eight driving forces topics with four bullets each as trends. Topics include: Economy and Financial, Population and Demographics, Resources and Environment, Science and Technology, Social and Cultural, Work and Leisure, and Higher Education. (2 pages)

UA Environmental Scan (SPBAC) - Spring 2009

An overview with eight issues and implications: economic projections, demographic projections and social factors, employment projections, student characteristics, technology, higher education industry, health care, and natural resources and environment. (14 pages)

UA Environmental Scan (SPBAC) - Fall 2009

Update of 2009 scan, listing five factors: Economic Crisis, Students, System Redesign, Climate, and Health Care. (1 page)

ABOR Environmental Scan (2005)

The Arizona Board of Regents does an occasional scan for use by its office as well as the universities. This one describes the key driving forces, facts, and implications for four topical areas: Demographics, Economy, Public Policy, and Technology. (8 pages)


Broad Scans Emphasizing Fundamental Changes


Critical Challenges for Public Universities (2005)

The critical challenges for public universities occur in four areas that began to surface about ten years ago. These four areas are now evolving quickly and interacting with one another to further complicate the ability to determine which might be the cause and which might be the effect (Resource Constraints and Demographic Trends; Learning Styles and Places; Competition, Cooperation, and Partnerships; and Focusing on Basics). As the environment is changing, so too must universities change. (2 pages)

Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World (2008)

National Intelligence Council summary of trends, relative certainties and their likely impact, plus key uncertainties and their potential consequences. More change than continuity is the watchword, with the next 15-20 years seen as "one of those great historical turning points where multiple factors are linked to be in play." Includes seven alternative futures with four specific scenarios. A focus on globalization and military implications, but it is comprehensive and applicable to any futures study, including university futures. (120 pages)

Institute for the Future

This site has multiple reports and is a forward-thinking organization. The IFTF provides a range of studies and an annual "Map of the Decade" (only older versions are available to non-members). While broad issues are covered in the Map of the Decade summaries, the general focus areas are: science and technology, health, demographics, food, business, and consumer. Special summary sections focus on particular topics, such as sustainability.

OECD Horizon Scan (2007)

Focuses on Denmark, but relevant to all OECD countries. Covered categories include: culture, development, economy, global, nature, people, resources, state, and worklife. Some additional efforts address the various types of Global Infrastructure Needs for 2030.

Forces That Will Shape America's Future (2007)

This is a listing of themes from the U.S. General Accountability Office Strategic Plan: Security Threats, Sustainability, Economic Growth, Global Interdependency, Societal Change, Quality of Life, and Science and Technology. The focus is on implications to the government, but the contents are applicable to other institutions. (40 pages)

Four Megatrends Converge in the Post-Recession New Normal (2009)

In the past decade, a series of diverse, yet interconnected trends have irrevocably changed the business and social environment, creating what some observers term the "new normal." Business and IT leaders must prepare for an era of "technology as air," personal involvement and external influences. (Gartner, Inc. account required to read actual report. The link above goes to a summary).

The Arizona We Want (2009)

A 40-page document published by the Center for the Future of Arizona in conjunction with the Gallup Organization. Includes a map of opportunities (policy ideas that citizens favor) and lists five issues that need resolution: 1) Arizona needs fully prepared leadership and governance structures appropriate to the 21st century; 2) Arizona needs an investment strategy; 3) Arizona needs a clear and sustained commitment to global competitiveness; 4) A constructive solution to illegal immigration must be found and implemented; and 5) Arizona needs a balanced and stable tax system. Includes six overarching results: 1) Arizona citizens agree on more than we disagree; 2) Arizonans are surprisingly attached to their communities; 3) The state’s natural beauty and open spaces are seen by citizens as our greatest asset, 4) Citizens are not at all satisfied with their elected leaders, 5) Like the rest of the world, Arizona residents want jobs, and 6) Arizona is not a great place for young college graduates.