The Change Resisters
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

The subtitle to the book is "how they prevent progress and what managers can do about them", by George Odiorne (professor of management at MIT at time book was written in 1981. It is currently out of print.

This 275 page book is written with examples and areas of emphasis that provide an easy to read product by a well known management author (he is the originator of Management by Objectives).

The chapters titles serve as mini-review: The anti-planning mentality, the activity trap, the change we like and the changes we dislike, the professionals as failure exploiters, the malpractice society, the idea killers, how to destroy a sound plan by false analogies, distorting facts to kill planned progress, nine ways of using false inferences to prevent change, the ideology of anti-planning how chronic childhood reinforces anti-planning, the new luddites, how our appetite for crises obliterates change, how bureaucracy makes cowards out of heroes, how people can band together to resist change, managing change in the world of change resisters, making yourself visible, managing change by keeping your options open, and toward surprise-free management. Examples of key parts of the book are below.

The nine elements of surprise free management are:
1. An above -average knowledge of the present system
2. A systemic way of preparing long-run strategic goals
3. A willingness to shift resources to their highest-yield areas
4. Skillful use of timing and positioning
5. Giving and getting commitments to goals on the part of all hands
6. A sound system of management information
7. An optimistic view of the future and a willingness to make it happen
8. A strong commitment to developing human potential
9. A relentless feedback of the facts of the situation as it emerges.
 
How to recognize "groupthink"
1. The ruling group gets along famously
2. The group screens out warning signals
3. The group uses rationalization instead of action
4. The group finds new meanings for morality
5. The group sees all opposition as one-dimensional
6. The group sets standards and enforces them
7. Conformity to the group produces self-discipline
8. Silence implies assent in group decision making
9. The use of consensus in place of voting
10. Pride and tradition are vital in group decisions
 
How to avoid seeing things that aren't there
1. Be sure to clarify the idea before sending it
2. Encode the message in a form easy to decode
3. Use media that will reach the sender
4. Estimate the receiver's decoding equipment
5. Obtain feedback
 
Good assumptions and bad assumptions
1. Assumptions should have grounds
2. When all evidence points in one direction, do not assume the opposite
3. When experts disagree, do not plunge

Return to "Anticipating the Future" course home page
Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell