Reviews: Society and Organization Relative to the Future
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

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Society Is Out of Control but Maybe Not

Out of Control: The Rise of Neo-biological Civilization. Kevin Kelly, Addison Wesley, New York, 1994, 521p.

The focus is on biological systems and what we might learn from them about how society and its components function (living and non-living). The "neo-biological" comes from how the new world uses the biological system as a model. The old world of top down control is fading, and the spontaneous, unsupervised, and uncontrolled birth of the internet is an example of the new. "Control is out, out of control is in". Kelly defines the Nine Laws of God as: 1) distribute being, 2) control from the bottom up, 3) cultivate increasing returns, 4) grow by chunking, 5) maximize the fringes, 6) honor your errors, 7) pursue no optima; have multiple goals, 8) seek persistent disequilibrium, and 9) change changes itself.

The Fifth Discipline: The art & Practice of the Learning Organization. Peter Senge. Doubleday, New York. 1990 (1994 paperback), 423p.

This book addresses how organizations might change in the future. The overall approach the "learning organization" is: 1) systems thinking, 2) personal mastery, 3) mental models, 4) building shared vision, and 5) team learning. These 5 areas integrate and become the "fifth discipline". Laws of the fifth discipline include: 1) today's problems come from yesterday's "solutions", 2) the harder you push, the harder the system pushes back, 3) behavior grows better before it grows worse, 4) the easy way out usually leads back in, 5) the cure can be worse than the disease, 5) faster is slower, 7) cause and effect are not closely related in time and space, 8) small changes can produce big results - but the areas of highest leverage are often the least obvious, 9) you can have your cake and eat it too - but not at once, 10) dividing an elephant in half does not produce two small elephants, and 11) there is no blame.

Upsizing the Individual in the Downsized Organization. 1994. Robert Johansen and Rob Swigart, Addison-Wesley, Massachusetts. 195 p.

With the widespread emphasis on reducing the size of organizations and restructuring major activities, not much has been written about the impact on the individual. The initial section summarizes current organizations: "Fewer managers managing more people with more diversity and more geographic separation but less loyalty to the organization". The authors then assess the situation: "Why this emerging organizational structure won't work in the future. They then focus on what could be: "Creating opportunities for yourself and your organization, now and in the future". One of their terms is the "fishnet" organization, where major portions of the hierarchy exist but there is a lot of "loose" movement for the rest of the organization. For example, poles holding a fishnet allow the net to move and fit the current needs but the net is still "anchored" to something. Several organizations use this approach to advantage. Other factors for the future organization include building communities with continuities to work and individuals, and the role of electronic/information capabilities.

The Team Net Factor: Bringing the Power of the Boundary Crossing Into the Heart of Your Business. 1993. Jessica Lipnack and Jeffrey Stamps, Oliver Wright Publications, Vermont. 414p.

There are many recent books on "teams", most from the business perspective. This book is from a couple that has been involved in "networking" for many years, and they approach the team topic differently. They stress the "boundary crossing" (taking advantage of differences). They define "teamnet" as a group of people and groups that cross conventional boundaries for mutual benefit while retaining individual independence. Their five principles are: unifying purpose, independent members, voluntary links, multiple leaders, and interactive levels. The good ways to fail are: a purpose with no glue and subject to groupthink, members that are not independent and are stubborn, links that are really not links to overload, leadership that either has no leaders or no followers, and no uplinks or downlinks. They also provide checklists and operational suggestions. This is an especially valuable book to read in context with other team building books relative to continuous improvement (total quality management) or strategic planning efforts.

Virtual Teams: Reaching Across Space, Time, and Organizations with Technology. Jessica Lipnack and Jeffrey Stamps. John Wiley & Sons. 1997. 262 pages.

They review teams and the special role of "virtual" (anytime, anyplace, anyone) and the changes that will allow. They review case histories of several companies that operate as virtual teams (for example, Eastman Kodak has 800-900 interlocking the company, including customers suppliers). By having virtual teams with the appropriate members, and well-designed communication among them, you can have transformations "at the speed of light". They provide considerable detail on how to operate virtual teams (it is not necessarily intuitive, and some conventional wisdom is not good advice). Their basic advice is get a clear goal, have the teams small (4-5 for the lowest level) and interlocking relationships with other teams (teams might form groups of teams). For more detailed information look at their web site -- http://www.netage.com/)

Being Digital. Nicholas, Negroponte. Alfred Knopf. 1995. 255.

A paperback updated from of a series of brief articles for Wired Magazine. The theme is how the movement from analog (current television and telephone) to digital (computers and many other things) will have a massive impact on society. He weaves some history of the relevant technologies into how things could be very different in the future. Digital is pervasive – it will affect nearly everything. He ends by noting the time for optimism is here—many previously competing groups/organizations will find it to their advantage to cooperate (and the technology is here to do that). He believes the real optimism is due to the empowering nature of being digital, we can make incredible changes in the future that would have been unheard of in the past.

Intuition at Work: Pathways to Unlimited Possibilities. Roger Frantz and Alex Pattakos (editors). 1996. New Leaders Press. 316 pages.

A book of 25 authors/coauthors presenting 22 chapters on practical uses and understanding of intuition. Intuition may have many names: gut feeling, instinct, insight, hunch, "guessing accurately", and common sense. Two quotations set the stage: The really valuable thing is intuition (Albert Einstein), The intuitive mind will tell the thinking where to look next (Jonas Salk). In the forward, Willis Harmon (an early futurist) lists four implications of "intuition" becoming more mainstream: 1) It brings a new approach to decision making, 2) It has implications with regard to values, 3) It amounts to a reassessment of the role of business, and 4) It amounts to a reassessment of the basic metaphysical assumptions that underlie modern industrial society. While the various authors come from a range of disciplines and different perspectives and approaches, the general theme throughout the book is that one has to spend a little time learning how to use intuition, and to do this you need to clear your mind of some "clutter" (cultural or historic experiences) -- look at new ways of approaching things or doing things

Rethinking America. 1995. Hedrick Smith. Random House, New York. 474 p.

A subtitle reads: "A New Game Plan from the American Innovators: Schools, Business, People, Work." The overall context is: we are caught in a mind-set of past successes, we need to rethink our schools for the new global game, business mindsets change to we-we from us verses them, and government and business becoming collaborators. Much of the book is a comparison of America in the context of other countries when addressing the above topics. He concludes with "the question is now whether other Americans are ready to rethink old ways, to learn from the Innovators, and then to apply and adapt their lessons in order to move America to higher performance and a higher quality of life in the coming generation".

The New Management: Democracy and Enterprise are Transforming Organizations. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. 1996. William Halal. 284 p.

Management techniques and approaches adjust to changing times. Halal addresses these changes with a backdrop of a major transition to a knowledge-based and global economy. After reviewing management approaches over the years, he provides a series of ideas and includes case histories based on interviews with over 400 managers, to show the "new management" is not just theory but is being practiced in varied locations. He also cautions about being caught up in "revolutionary zeal" that often accompanies new approaches and confronts existing managers with new buzz words and arrogant behavior patterns. Halal believe much of "old management" can be continued but combined with new forms to the changing times. His new management paradigm would include shifts to "1) internal markets - small enterprises cooperating within a large enterprise, 2) corporate community - coalition of all stockholder rights and responsibilities, and 3) organic organization - creative tension between internal markets and corporate community."

The Second Curve: Managing the Velocity of Change. Ballantine Books. Ian Morrison. 1996. 272 p.

Morrison is the former President of the Institute for the Future and addressees the various components of world changing as two curves. The first curve is what has been traditional, with a few powerful countries dominating, capital and money having major importance, and hardwork and current career and basic security as a setting. The second curve has different countries dominate, knowledge and communication along with people replacing capital and money as the important variables, and more organizational culture, uncertainty, future career orientation for individuals. Some of the lessons learned about the transition are: "1) don't mistake the second curve for an orderly new world, 2) how and when these shifts occur are extremely uncertain, 3) people tend to overestimate the impact of change in the short run and to underestimate in the long run, and 4) ground the future in information about the present." He identifies four common pitfalls in the road to success unless you are alert to them: 1) scale (honor small numbers), 2) incentives (need incentives for both curves during transition), 3) organization (don't let the reengineers get at the second curve), and 4) people (who is building the second curve in your organization - encourage them).

Future Tense: The Business Realities for the Next Ten Years. 1994.  Ian Morrison and Greg Schmid. William Morrow. 304 p.

The authors are from the Institute of the Future, a firm that publishes reports each year that focus on the next 10 years. The book reviews the key driving forces (including the changing worker, social insecurity, global markets, domestic competition, failing institutions, quest for authority, and information technologies, They then discuss a transitional solutions (including reorganizing the way we do business, understanding the purpose of the organization, understanding the true meaning of globalization). They then offer some critical forecasts (aging babyboomers, very well educated population, world middle class, customer choice rises, technologies enable change). They end by discussing new ways of business leadership (foresight, vision, resolving tensions).

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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell