Futures in a Nutshell

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

1. The essentials of studying the future are:

 • Understanding where we are today
 • Having an idea of where we want to go
 • Understanding relevant driving forces and paradigm shifts
 • Identifying uncertainties and assumptions
 • Recognizing your areas of ignorance (know what you don't know)
 • Developing several scenarios for better understanding of what is possible
 • Revising the idea of where you want to go and how to get there

2. An expanded version of a futures study: Futures in a Nutshell

Overview
 • Develop a framework for addressing the future - learn about the related subjects as necessary
 • Research a topic (to gather multiple perspectives and using multiple sources)
 • Analyze and report using the tools and vehicles appropriate to the audience
 • Understand the need for maintaining awareness on a continuing basis - fine the best resources to do this efficiently
 • Recognize that communicating and implementing the results of a futures study takes a careful effort

Develop an Understanding of ....
 • The basics of change to help understand how to deal with the more specific changes on a particular topic
 • The period of time you live in and people's REAL values (not just the ones they talk about)
 • Paradigm shifts, major changes in trends, and potential major discontinuities
 • Scenario building and issues development to gain fresh perspectives about the subject
 • Dealing with ambiguity, adaptive change (chaotics), and uncertainty

Summary
 • Futures techniques are like any technique - they grow rusty without use
 • There is tremendous change occurring and more and more people understand that but don't know what to do about it
 • During times of rapid change those with a knowledge of futures techniques may benefit