-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
When
looking at the "big picture" you should look at the major issues and
assumptions, rather than all possible ones. Find which are important (that is,
will have a significant effect on the future and have some probability of occurring).
Throw in a few wild cards too, since you cannot cover all assumptions. Issues
and assumptions in part can be determined by looking at driving
forces of change and see what comes to mind in reading them. It is very important
to understand your assumptions. Examples of issues include how societal values
might change, political unrest, or negative effects of new technologies.