Scenarios, Foresight and Change
-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
While thinking about visions
and scenarios, you also need to review long term or recent history (which ever
is most relevant) and the basic changes under way. Paradigm shifts and driving
forces of change and and the change process itself are fundamental to this understanding.
Visions and scenarios help you understand the future. Foresight allows you to
operationalize all this into an effective way to essentially"anticipate
Tutorial on Building Scenarios
- Presents the essential
steps in building scenarios and reviews options for simple or complex scenario
Scenarios (examples of different approaches and results)
for Alternative Futures (Future of Genomics and Society Using Scenarios)
Force 2025 Final Report
(Global Business Network)
Europe 2010 (Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission)
Forward: A web resource for foresight in government (scenarios page)
Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2020: Mapping the Global Future
Institute, Arizona State University (See current research and publications)
Oil (also read scenario speeches - lower right of page).
- Future Studio
(Lists of a large number of scenarios and techniques for building them; allso
includes information on foresight)
- Wikipedia on Scenario Planning (Examples and methods)
- Foresight allows you
to take a basic understanding of future possibilities and incorporate it
into your normal work efforts. .
Visions (what we want to be)
Global Ideas Bank
for 2020 on Food and Environment
Values (our basic principles for taking actions)
Systems - values of leaders
Quality Improvement (American Society for Quality)
- Know the past before
you try to learn about the future.
- Understanding what
you don't know is essential.
- Understanding past
change is helpful for anticipating future change.
- Scenario development
is improved by using a variety of futures
techniques or strategic planning approaches.
Return to "Anticipating
the Future" course home page
Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell (udate test via dw) new addn