-- a university of arizona
course on methods and approaches for studying the future
What we don't know may
be as important as what we know. The topics below are often glossed over in
preparing studies and therefore the report is not nearly as useful as it could
be.
Ignorance
What is it that we don't
know? How do we know when we don't know? There are not simple solutions for
these questions, but recognizing that the problem exists is the first step.
More information on ignorance is available.
Assumptions
People in the same field
often make the same assumptions - they were trained in similar ways and they
likely associate with people that have the same backgrounds or perspectives.
However, others may not look at the same situation and make the same assumptions.
When reports are developed without indicating the assumptions, everyone ;must
supply their own. These are often so deeply embedded in our behavior pattern
that we don't even think we are making assumptions, we just automatically
apply them. The result is different people read the same report in different
ways and draw different conclusions. The solution is to state the critical
assumptions. More
information on assumptions is available.
Uncertainties
When trying to anticipate
the future, one cannot be too specific. Often there is a tendency to want
to be quantitative (this is find for planning targets but not if it becomes
an attempt to predict the future). Therefore it is useful to indicate where
the greatest uncertainties might be and determine to some degree what the
impact would be if there was variation in the items relating to this uncertainty.
Where there is limited impact, you may not need to worry about the uncertainty
factor, but those with a range of significant impacts should be stated and
commented upon in any futures study. More
information on uncertainties is available.
What Ifs
What would you if ......
This is a way of forcing yourself to ask a series of 'what if' questions,
and that makes you think about new possibilities. And that makes you think
more fully about the future. Review "The
500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next"
Change
We are in constant state
of change. The change that blends in with the direction we would like to go
is accepted and is comfortable. The change that is counter to what we are
comfortable with is often ignored or we don't know how to address it. We are
in a rapidly changing world and while much is uncertain, some trends and possible
events can be useful in helping us accommodate the changes (and even anticipate
them). More information on change is available.
