Books - A Few Interesting Books

A Few Interesting Books - if your time is short

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

1. The Age of Discontinuity: Guidelines to Our Changing Society, Peter Drucker, Harper & Row, 1969/1978, 402 pages.

The original book was published in 1969, and an updated preface was added in the 1978 edition, noting the earlier comments were basically still relevant. The main theme is that the continuity of the old trends or issues for social and cultural changes were ending. The book does not "forecast", but looks at the major changes occurring in the foundations that will affect changes. He identifies 4 discontinuities:

• Rapid emergence of new technologies and resulting new industries

• Emergence on world economy - where role of developed and developing countries take on the role of class conflicts of a national economy

• Emergence of new pluralism of institutions that obsoletes traditional theories (and generally accepted) of government and society

• Emergence of knowledge as the new capital and the central resource of an economy - including the new power centers that will develop for those who have the knowledge

He further states that the dynamics of population changes are different in three major sections of the world (developed countries of industrialized world, developed countries of the Soviet Bloc, and the developing countries of the third world. The "age of discontinuity" is not a pessimistic situation, it provides ample opportunities for new actions, so it really is an "age of opportunity".

2. Being Digital. Nicholas, Negroponte. Alfred Knopf. 1995. 255.

A paperback updated from of a series of brief articles for Wired Magazine. The theme is how the movement from analog (current television and telephone) to digital (computers and many other things) will have a massive impact on society. He weaves some history of the relevant technologies into how things could be very different in the future. Digital is pervasive – it will affect nearly everything. He ends by noting the time for optimism is here—many previously competing groups/organizations will find it to their advantage to cooperate (and the technology is here to do that). He believes the real optimism is due to the empowering nature of being digital, we can make incredible changes in the future that would have been unheard of in the past.

3. Paradigms: The Business of Discovering the Future, Barker, Joel. HarperCollins. 1993. 240 p.

One of the best sources of information on paradigms - defining them, suggesting how they work, and providing examples. He also identifies the most important paradigm shift of the 20th century (quality matters) and provides the key characteristics of paradigms. Some of his paradigm examples (based on trends he lists) for the 1990s (written in the early 1990s but their relevance can now be seen in retrospect).

• Solar/hydrogen/fission

• Time taxes (trading volunteer time for reduced tax burden)

• Buffalo commons (return land to its natural state)

• Education K through competence

• Magical, mystical polymers

• Nature's wisdom

• Negawatts (energy efficiency pays off)

• New building materials

• Gaia

• Fractals and chaos mathematics

• Personalized production

• Masters and patrons (the two are interdependent)

• Virtual reality

4. The 500 Year Delta: What Happens After What Comes Next 1997. Jim Taylor and Watts Wacker. Harper Business. 302 p.

The introduction begins "This is a book about the near-term and long-term future of business and how business leaders must reposition themselves and rethink the arenas in which they compete. It is a book about history and the direction for the future, about the qualities and frames of mind that will sustain us ant hose we must jettison if we hope to cope with what lies ahead. It is a book about taking the blinders off, about seeing things whole and clear. But most of all, this is a book about change, change so rapid and so massive that by century’s end it will have swept away nearly the entire underpinnings of modern life." That is a pretty good review of the book!. They address how known entities will be faced with change (the organization, the economic rationale of today) and how they are being replaces with new rules (values and connectivity, principles as directions, communications and information sharing, and lifestyles). They provide a "rule book" for the new chaotic world (e.g., wisdom of planning, preparing, managing, setting at the top, and focus).

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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell