Roadmap to a Futures Study
-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

INTRODUCTION
 
There is no one right way to understand and approach futures studies. It is not a specific discipline, but draws from a diverse set of subjects. Accordingly, there are a number of approaches that one can take to become a practical "futurist". This roadmap is based on my perspectives and other approaches may fit better with your particular needs. However, this is a starting point for you to develop your own techniques.
 
Studying the future has a long history. Its popularity has varied over the years and it is currently in a growth mode. This is probably due to 1) interest in the new 21st century, and 2) a recognition the world is likely to undergo some profound changes in the next few decades. Since it would be useful to think about what those changes might be, how they might affect us, and how we might therefore change our lives, we ought to take advantage of understanding something about what might happen.
 
Why Study the Future?
• World conditions are changing markedly; simple extrapolations of the past are inappropriate.
• Early warnings exist for transitions to new worlds; it is hard to find them unless you look for them. Understanding history and change helps understand discontinuities and future possibilities.
 
What does “futures studies” really mean?
• Futures studies is usually not a formal field
• Thinking about the future is useful for today's choices
• Recognizing that trends can be modified allows one to do something about them
• The "mindset" is important; beware of hidden biases and group think
• It is more than forecasting, predicting, or palm reading
• Using a toolbox of techniques to do these things is "future studies"
 
What do futurists do and what are they like?
• Anticipate change and react to it.
 
• Part historian, part scientist, part feet on ground part feet in air. 
• Interest in a broad range of subjects, some curiosity, and a sense of the "big picture"
• Mostly integrator with sense of the whole and comfortable with uncertainty.
• Approaches differ, most are closet futurists but more becoming full time.
 
OVERVIEW OF TOOLS AND APPROACHES
 
General Approach to Developing a Futures Study
There is too much uncertainty and potentially new happenings to be give a set of guidelines that fit all situations. Generally, it is better to define larger scale frameworks and allow for specific choices closer to the time in question. A specific approach might include:
• Develop anticipatory skills and maintain awareness of current and potential changes
• Know what to look for and separating important events from noise
• Use a radar approach rather than a vacuum cleaner approach to data gathering
• Know what tools are available and when to use them and when not to use them
• Prepare to react early to new changes while allowing for flexibility for error as more is learned
• Don't place undue trust in experts or in non-experts (or yourself)
• Watch out for the bandwagon effect (safety in numbers ) or group think (fear of standing out)
• Be wary of unstated assumptions or simplistic statements; the seemingly obvious may not be right
• Implement foresight knowledge into your daily activities so you become an automated futurist
 
Be sure to complete a broad based evaluation of information sources. Take advantage of electronic searching techniques where multiple keys and multiple sources can be scanned rapidly. Such multiple sources are essential, and should include common and uncommon materials (e.g., standard journals, government documents, foundation and association reports, and personal interviews). Be sure the multiple sources also provide multiple viewpoints and perspectives. Recognize that many topics (e.g., problems, issues, policies) are not totally new. They may re-occur in different contexts, combine ingredients in a different manner, or build a series of seemingly unrelated events into a new topic. Accordingly, it is worth the effort to find what has been done in the past to better understand what might occur in the future.
 
Specific Steps for a Typical Futures
• Identify a few paradigm shifts to form the overall framework
• List 5-7 driving forces of change and their associated trends
• Identify a series of assumptions and cautionary statements
• Understand the extreme perspectives on a particular issue and why they exist
• Develop four scenarios to represent a range of options and describe their implications Identify important values and conditions that are critical for all scenarios
• List questions which should be asked today in view of the scenario results
• Repeat the cycle to better understand the assumptions/choices
 
Developing Your Anticipatory Skills
• Knowing what to look for and separating important events from noise
• Knowing what tools are available and when to use them
• Reacting early to new changes while allowing for flexibility for error
• Don't place undue trust in experts or in non-experts
• Involve others at early stages and keep an open mind
 
IMPLEMENTING FORESIGHT INTO YOUR DAILY ACTIVITIES
 
What is in the toolbox of techniques?
• It is more than forecasting, predicting, or palm reading.
• Tools are drawn from many disciplines - pick the ones that fit the job at hand.
• Examples: context setting research, assessments, possible wild cards, trend and scenario analysis.
 
Analyzing and Reporting
Knowledge is not valuable unless put to use. Appropriate analysis must be made so it will withstand criticism, as some of the conclusions will surely be difficult for some to accept. If you are to influence others, your analysis must fit accepted norms for format and key ingredients, but could include unconventional approaches or conclusions. A report should be clear and concise, in the format of the intended audience, and address only the relevant issues. Avoid collecting and using more data than are necessary. Specific report content should include:
• A clear statement of the problem or topic, so all readers know what to expect with further reading.
• All relevant assumptions should be stated. Without this background, readers will try to develop their own assumptions, and they may be counter to the ones you made.
• Identify relevant facts (data) or beliefs (viewpoints). This will serve as the basis of further discussion and is a key element in the report.
• Identity alternative explanations or options, depending on the type of report and based on the facts and beliefs just stated.
• Identify any uncertainties that might affect your alternatives if additional information were available. Often the uncertainties are key, as they represent areas of fruitful and justifiable exploration (particularly the low probability-high impact options).
• Make conclusions. These might be specific or general, statements or recommendations, or a short statement to serve as a report summary.
 
Maintaining Awareness
Identify a few people you consider responsible futurists in subject areas you feel relevant; pick them for their varied perspectives about the subjects, and follow some of their writings. Select several information sources to read on a continuing basis. These should be chosen to give different perspectives, and provide a range of subjects, but remain relevant to your general areas of interest. Be alert to the general areas of agreement/disagreement so you can selectively follow topics where debate is essential vs. those where general information is sufficient.
 
Implementing Your Results
Dealing with inertia is not easy. The "present" is a significant influence on how things might shift in the future. This institutional inertia is good when it damps change to be within the realm of human acceptance. It is bad when it unnecessarily holds back "appropriate" change. It can be caused by people wanting to retain familiarity with the known, fear of the unknown, or relative gains/losses by some key players. Understanding the institutional structure and its incentives for change will affect how change can be accomplished
 
UNDERSTANDING ROLE OF CHANGE
 
Understanding the basics of change helps group more specific changes and provides some rationale on how people approach change. Often change is not incremental (slow and predictable change), and that is why you need approaches that involve techniques other than simple (or even modified trend analysis) extrapolation. Uncertainty and flexibility may become watchwords for navigating this change. Those who can deal with ambiguity and can remain flexible in possible reactions to change will be at an advantage.
 
Paradigm Shifts and Driving Forces
• Paradigm shifts are the few “big” background issues that help us under shifts. Identifying them is not always easy, but understanding their role is important. A paradigm shift is like an unwritten rule, for example, the shift from the cold war period to the post cold war period represented a paradigm shift. Knowing which one exist at the time (or even better, what paradigm shifts are emerging) allows you to function well. In addition to paradigm shifts, is it is useful to list the key driving forces (e.g., information technology, demographic shifts) that ‘force’ change to occur.
 
• Understanding the period of time you live in, and peoples REAL values helps in this regard understand how people will accept change.
 
• It is often said we are in the "post industrial age". This could be, but recognize that these large shifts between eras have several present at one time while one may be dominant. My perspective is that we have moved through several eras over centuries from hunter/gatherer to agricultural to industrial to service to information to self esteem ages, where all are present and no single one might really be dominant. Understanding there is no dominant "age" we live in but rather a combination of "ages" helps give context and avoids simplistic solutions for complex settings. For example, a homeless person might be classified as a hunter/gather in modern times.
 
• We are in a special time period. The likely change is so immense that in 20 or so years it will be hard to recognize many of today's patterns or institutional arrangements. How you perceive this change phenomenon sets the stage for everything else. In short, don't spend time rearranging chairs on the Titanic deck when you should be watching for icebergs and heeding early warning signals of the explorers looking ahead.
 
Everyone has biases. You need to determine yours and learn to compensate for them. People tend to see the world through filters (like colored glasses). These filters have developed from early background (values and beliefs as well as experiences), everyday exposures to events and friends/colleagues, and diversity of reading and experience.
• Experts can be wrong (but they are still worth reading). A diversity of viewpoints is necessary to understand a subject. Experts may be biased, be too close to details such that they don't see the whole picture, or not ask the relevant question.
 
• Data can be misused. Generally speaking, there is a lot of data and it is useful. However, much of the data was collected with a specific purpose in mind and the context of collection/limitations was understood. There are times when the data are then used for other purposes, by people that do not understand (or know about) the original constraints. Possible misuse of data is more likely in futures settings, as more of the uses were unanticipated during data development stage.
 
• The futurist is vulnerable. People do not like to hear bad news, and often any adequate analysis contains some bad news. How this is worded and explained is essential to making the important points rather than simply causing emotional avoidance of the issues. A related caution is that the more senior the person in an organization, the more likely they are to "have their own network" of information about changes.
 
• Many organizations suffer from “groupthink”, where the participants are from the same background, think alike, and make the same assumptions. When they reach a conclusion everyone is comfortable. But they could be wrong.
 
CONCLUSIONS
It is difficult to see change when one is a part of it. The ability to look at the issues from an entirely new perspective is needed to identify hidden biases and new approaches. Recognizing selected driving forces allows one to operate on the RADAR principle - keep alert but don't spend all your time looking for details.
 
Being aware of multiple perspectives places you in a position to not only know the subject but to be at a competitive advantage of many other players in the process; having this overall perspective and understanding if the REAL parameters under discussion is rare.
Know your information sources. When detailed studies are necessary, they can come with little warning. Familiarity with techniques of information gathering (library related, special sources, or other people) can be put to use immediately.
 
A PRACTICAL CHECKLIST  FOR LEARNING ABOUT THE FUTURE
• Maintain awareness (understand driving forces, identify major information sources)
• Use the radar approach rather than the vacuum cleaner approach for date gathering
• Research an issue from multiple perspectives and review existing knowledge
• Allow for uncertainties (wildcards) and understand (and state) key assumptions effect (group think or mob rule)
• Be wary of unstated assumptions or simplistic statements Recognize that the obvious may not always be right
• Always allow for unanticipated events and be prepared for the consequences
 
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Prepared by Roger L. Caldwell