Hints in Dealing With Futures Projects

-- a university of arizona course on methods and approaches for studying the future

This is a short listing (7 actually) of guiding principles or sayings to help you determine your own frame of  reference for working with the future. You should build your own toolbox of futures techniques or hints, and re-read them often.

It Depends --- The answer to many questions.

There are often many "right" or at least acceptable answers. Often we do not provide sufficient information on assumptions or conditions and yet expect a simple answer. Under these conditions, the best answer is simply "it depends". This forces the questioner to better understand the question. This situation occurs quite often.

 

The world is Gaussian (bell shaped curve) - or S shaped curve (integrated version of bell shaped)

Many events or situations can be represented by either the bell shaped curve or the s shaped curve. One other curve that is useful is the simple straight line. So, bell, S, and straight line (or their combinations in a single graphic) are sufficient graphics to apply to many situations. There are other types of curves that also represent major changes relating to futures analysis.

 

7 +/- 2. Commonly used numbers that apply to many situations

More than this amount is unwieldy or too confusing, less is insufficient diversity. Good for number of projects to do at once, members on a committee, goals in a project, days in a week, hints on studying the future, and so on. But, sometimes there are fewer. For example, the number 3 is useful for the optimum rinses for dishes, the number of cycles in a Delphi analysis, or the the number of examples in a learning situation. Similar examples can be developed for other numbers.

 

Question Assumptions

Many assumptions about the future are unstated; in fact the author frequently assumes they are facts and believes it unnecessary to identify them as assumptions. This is one of the weaknesses of many reports. Without assumptions identified, everyone uses their own. It is useful to debate an assumption, but to ignore them causes unnecessary argument and anxiety.

 

Watch  for groupthink and fixed mindsets in individuals and organizations

When large shifts occur, those vested in the previous dominant force have the most to loose. They may know change is coming and resist it for practical reasons, but more often they are so fixed in the past they do not see early or even obvious signals of the future. Arguments based on fact or logic may not work well in these situations. Understanding how to deal with "change" helps in these cases.

 

Expect both surprises and expected results from a published forecast

Be flexible on expectations. Some situations can be explained in an "elegant" way - a very simple and powerful statement about very complex activities. Chaotic systems also are part of the explanation, for both short and long term timeframes. What seems like a good correlation in the short term may actually be part of the chaotic longer term and simple extrapolations will get you in trouble. Uncertainties are always around, and learning to live with them and appreciate their "value" in understanding the future is useful. Make good use of scenarios (generally 4 or so) to better understand the ranges of possibility and to help prepare for situations you have not previously studied in detail.  

 

Several solutions are likely - don't over study the situation

It is difficult to optimize solutions when many conditions must be met with complex situations. While some situations may point to the need to take time and effort to optimize a solution, many situations are satisfied by any one of several solutions (there is no "one best answer"). Don't waste a lot of time coming up with the "best" solution (actually, if a single best solution is the goal, you probably don't understand all the relevant factors and are approaching the study too narrowly).

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