There is always uncertainty,
that is why we do not "predict" the future, but build forecasts
when specificity is required (with error ranges) and scenarios when we are
trying to better understand the situation. Uncertainties must be planned for
but with out being specific to which uncertainty.
Wildcards
A wildcard is an unexpected
event. While it is difficult to "guess" in advance on what such
an event might be, there will likely be some event and the idea is to plan
for the eventuality rather than worry about specific details. The process
of planning for and responding to these unanticipated events is the important
lesson.
GBGB's
Michael Marian (editor
of Future Survey) coined the term GBGB (for Great Big Glaring Blindspots).
These are wildcards and uncertainties of a sort, but could be anticipates with
some effort. We should know what are blind spots are. Review the ignorance
questions and see where your own blind spots are. Then address them.
